Leaning on the jab: How the UK Government’s response to the South Africa variant exposes their political dependency on a successful rollout
Amid a second wave of the virus which has, by all useful metrics, dwarfed the original outbreak in its severity, hope has been pinned by politicians and the public alike on the possibility that a vaccine rollout is the golden ticket out of the crisis. As we trudge towards the anniversary of the first lockdown whilst experiencing a far deadlier second coming of the disease, anything that might put an end to both the human suffering and pandemic fatigue that has dominated the last year, is understandably held up as a beacon of hope in the midst of the bleak, repetitive winter weeks. Right from the outset last year, we have nurtured the idea of ‘life as normal’ re-enabled by widespread immunisation, or what Boris Johnson defined in more combative terms as a vaccination programme as our best ‘weapon’ against the virus. However, whilst it is undoubtedly true that a vaccination programme is our only longterm route out of this situation, our optimism has been shaken by the emergence of variants that have increased precipitously the scale of the problem, undermined the efficacy of in-hospital treatments, and that threaten to do the same for vaccines. With the introduction this week of a door-to-door testing programme aimed at rooting out cases of a South African variant, which was detected in the UK last week through routine mass genetic analysis of samples, new uncertainty has been piled on top of old.
As of Monday the 1st of February, door-to-door testing has begun in eight target postcode areas in London and the surrounding area, regardless of symptoms. Those within these areas have been told to stay at home, and to interpret the government guidance about going out for exercise or to the shops more stringently, for example only going to the shops if their home supplies have run out. The hope is that universal door-to-door testing will give a picture of community transmission, whilst enabling the government to get ahead of the curve on this issue. Their rapid response is a reflection of the possible challenges that the variant, known formally as 501Y.V2, could pose to vaccination programmes as results from the Novavax trials suggest that their specific vaccine was up to 30% less effective against the variant owing to its increased ability to evade the body’s antibody response. It’s both frustrating and alarming to see such a rapid government response, and talk of ‘stamping out’ the variant at an early stage. It stands in contrast to the emergence of the Kent variant which not only failed to prompt such a response but was also left to spread under a tiered system, which has since been labelled ineffective against that variant. Indeed Johnson suggested that the disease was now “behaving much more nationally” and would require “going down the tiers in a national way” — ignoring that his top officials had been saying this for some months. However, given the consistent failure of the government to respond both quickly and strongly enough to new developments during the crisis, the way in which they have somewhat bucked the trend with their approach to the South Africa variant is not so much a demonstration that they’ve learnt their lesson, but rather is an indication of the weight the government is putting on the vaccine rollout programme to be its ticket to redemption.
The government has bought fully into a frenzied promotion of its rapid vaccine rollout as a means of detracting from its innumerable failures during the crisis, and the media has largely played along, even offering up handy graphs to show the UK’s progression against other countries, particularly the EU. The statistics are undeniably in the UK’s favour: as of February 1st, it had 14.94 vaccination doses administered per 100, as opposed to Italy, the EU’s highest vaccinator with 3.4, or Germany close behind at 3.09. By repeatedly pointing to its acquisition of 367m doses of the vaccine from 7 different distributors and by contrasting this against other countries, the government has sought both to offset criticism by critics pointing to its failures, and to placate the clamouring of groups such as the Coronavirus Recovery Group (CRG), who want to hear the government’s exact strategy for lifting lockdown restrictions at the earliest opportunity. It’s also been used as a carrot to try to boost compliance with the latest national lockdown amongst the general public: don’t give up now when we’re so close to the end, we’re told. Yet by focusing on vaccine rollout, Johnson’s administration has put itself in the uncomfortable position of being dependent on the success of science it cannot control. The response to the South African variant is a demonstration of both the shakiness of this reliance and the depth of commitment that the government has made to inoculation as its saviour. Whilst we must wait with anxious hope that the government can succeed where they have failed so many times before, and get in front of this latest development, we must also not allow ourselves to become delusional about the light at the end of the tunnel. Whilst it is by no means a mirage, there remains the threat — illustrated by recent events — posed by continuous genetic mutation which is aided with every extra transmission of the disease, and which, if the government is strong enough to resist the foolhardy CRG, will factor prominently into any decisions regarding the easing of restrictions. Furthermore, there is an alarming credibility crisis in the form of an anti-vax timebomb which, whilst at this early stage of vaccinations for the elderly and vulnerable, who have a very immediate incentive to get vaccinated, remains muted, will no doubt rear its ugly head as vaccinations are gradually offered to younger and less-immediately at risk groups. Finally, issues of vaccine nationalism, which the WHO has warned will directly lead to an inability to curb transmission effectively, and to more troubling variations, will only intensify in the coming months. The kinds of conflict to be expected were dramatically demonstrated in last week’s row between the EU and AstraZeneca which culminated in the near-implementation of a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland when the EU threatened to invoke Article 16 of the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol, based on allegations that the company was unfairly prioritising its obligations to the UK over them. Going forward, the UK faces great challenges with its vaccination programme, and it’s vital that we’re not complacent. There is much work to be done on countering harmful disinformation that furthers the anti-vax movement, but starting a conversation with someone you might know is a first step. Every transmission may boost the odds of a new variant, but following government guidance doesn’t mean you’re selling out to their politics, but rather shortening the time frame before the real scrutiny of their record can begin.
It’s never fun to be the pessimist in the room at times like these when what we need most is an injection of not just a vaccine but also of optimism. However, it is vital therefore that we guard against the potential for those with ulterior motives to play on that need for optimism as an avoidance strategy for tough decisions and tough conversations. If Boris Johnson has consistently failed to act according to the facts, then let’s equip ourselves with that realistic viewpoint now. Doing so will ensure that we are far better equipped to bring those responsible for 100,000 deaths to account following this crisis, unblinded by their self-serving attempts to divert our attention elsewhere. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but just because the government couldn’t stomach it doesn’t mean we can’t.
